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Alolan Pokémon Shiny Rates

Welcome back, travelers! In one of the largest shiny releases to date, eight different Alolan Pokémon can now be encountered in the wild and hatched from eggs as part of Pokémon GO‘s third anniversary celebration. Silph researchers have assembled a Task Force in order to take on the challenge of determining the shiny rate of Alolan Pokémon that can be found in the wild. These are the Alolan forms of Diglett, Exeggutor, Geodude, and Rattata. Data collection began around 3:00 UTC on the 29th of June, after a boost to the spawn rate was detected. Let’s take a look at what the data say about their shiny rate so far!

6/29/2019 19:30 UTC Update

Despite the small size of the dataset, we’re going to take a look at each of the four species individually. It’s still too early to look at exact rates, so we’ll focus on the confidence intervals for now.

Species Shinies /
(1 in X)
99% CI
(1 in X)
1 / 1,315 250+
9 / 252 14 – 80
8 / 1,281 75 – 500
1 / 1,105 210+

Even with only a couple hundred encounters, we can already conclude that Alolan Exeggutor is enjoying a significantly boosted shiny rate. It also seems likely that neither Alolan Rattata nor Alolan Diglett are boosted. Alolan Geodude is still too close too call. We’ll keep this article updated over the next couple of days as the dataset matures! See you soon!

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